TAYLOR: Well, I could use many of the same adjectives that Michael used—(laughter)—tragic and unsustainable and so forth. Security Issues May Hurt Development in Latin America For the sixth consecutive year, Gallup's Law and Order Index shows residents of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2014 were the least likely in the world to feel secure in their communities. Of course, making political tradeoffs to obtain majorities in Congress is common practice worldwide, but it often leads to corruption. Obviously seeking support for the implementation of the peace agreement, at the same time that the traditional issue that has shaped U.S.-Colombian relations, which is drugs, is, you know, front and center with this massive increase in coca cultivation. The second possibility is direct elections. It shouldn’t be, but my concern is that might be, although the corruption issue is clearly going to be there. HOCK: Yeah, and which I guess begs the question, you know, can you have a 26-state democracy with over 30 political parties and have that survive without corruption? The other problem is the polarization within Colombia itself, which makes any kind of sustainable sort of support more difficult, more complicated. Q: Mike Barnes, Center for International Policy. To what extent was that—or to what extent is that profile that Brazil has tried to have in the last decade completely undermined by the current political and economic crisis? Promptly the other states of the lower South followed. The corruption scandal has further politicized the media, and I think this is very troubling for the long term, especially for democracies in the region. SHIFTER: Well, thank you for that, Cindy. I’ll defer to Michael, but I tend to think that the Colombians have so much on their plate with the peace deal that they may be a little bit more distracted and less laser-focused than the Chileans have been on promoting this trade agenda, although I hope not because I think—again, I think it’s a very positive factor. They become angry because they feel they have lost status at the expenses of others. But more and more you hear talk of convergence and acercamiento, you know, a closening of those two trade blocs. There’s enormous polarization, and we’re already entered into an electoral cycle for the 2018 elections, which happens less than a year from now. And how they’re pragmatic because they’re waiting for some new governments. Second of all, we’ve see just the dramatic, accelerated deterioration in Venezuela. So why don’t we turn—. The following is a compilation highlighting unique initiatives taking place in every South American country, each with its own unique approach to common challenges faced by investment promotion agencies. There’s no ambassador now, acting ambassador. I’m not sure what they would be. You know, I’m Mark Penn, and I worked in a few elections in the country over the—over the years, none recently. Here we go again. And I think it should focus on what its mandate is, which is as a political forum dealing with democracy and human rights. Is Pinera Impairing Chileâs Leadership on Climate Change? It’s higher than both the Brazilian president and the Colombian president have combined, just to put it in some perspective. But, you know, there are Mexicans you speak to today that didn’t like Lopez Obrador and haven’t liked Lopez Obrador, but they say, well, you know, we had two governments of the PAN. This pollution can be both airborne, and arguably more important, also originates in the underdevelopment of sanitation infrastructure. But you know, it’s—you know, when you try to do everything then nothing is real priority, right? And of course, the polarization means that at least one of the candidates, probably to get into the second round, will be a fierce critic and opponent of this peace deal with the FARC. Economic issueshave played a significant role in the widespread dissatisfaction. So we should just be realistic and honest and upfront about that possibility. What is a solution that we can brainstorm that gets all of these diverse parties out of the current stalemate and thinking about how to fix the system, fix the constitution, fix the electoral laws and so forth, so we deal with these problems? In Venezuela, Maduro Is More Entrenched Than Ever. You know, perhaps turning towards the U.S. in a more open way, a deliberate way, thinking more about where agreements could be made, and also trying to find some triumphs when it’s very hard to show any kind of political victory at home. Now, as if the country’s other pressing problems weren’t enough, the Constitutional Court’s failure to resolve a standoff at the heart of his dismissal has added a new item to Peru’s “to do” list: constitutional reform. You’ve got a very polarized country here in the United States. But I would also point to the fact that the OAS has taken—today is behaving and performing in ways that are much improved by comparison to where it was even in the not-so-distant past. Vivian Lowery Derryck, the Bridges Institute. Thanks, everyone, for being here. It’s hard to recall anything comparable certainly in the western hemisphere in recent—in recent memory. ARNSON: Other questions? Bachelet’s popularity is very, very low. HOCK: No, I mean, obviously Brazil, you know, hosted, you know, the last Rio+20. Doing so will leverage the United States' enduring strength: its high-end market. Anyway, it’s time. So something is going on here that all the idea, the message of change is not changing at all. He, since taking office, has launched this very ambitious process of economic reform to undo the economic mismanagement and corruption of previous—of at least the decade or so of the—of the Kirchner years. ARNSON: If I could just add to that, I think that, you know, some Latin American countries are really in the forefront of those that are suffering the most from the effects of a changing climate. protests, South America SAN SALVADOR, El Salvador (CN) â With political unrest in Chile, Peru, Brazil, Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia, virtually the entire continent of South America is in the throes of drama unseen for a generation. I think that the corruption issue will clearly be there. And I think Temer, who has always been a rather wily politician, very quickly tried to eliminate any consideration of the possibility of resignation. And this was a joint settlement between Brazil and Switzerland and the United States. South Africa's political crisis appears to be coming to a head. The first one: Macriâs unexpected victory in 2015 marked the beginning of the end of the âpink tideâ and the quick off of a new political cycle favorable to center-right and rightist governments. We can divide the environmental challenges into those that are already apparent and those that will become more so through the 21st C. (World Bank, 2016) Among the former, the most obvious one is the pollution that mars many cities in Latin America. In many cases, this results not so much from industry as from the massive concentration in 1-2 urban areas in each country. And that’s a disappointing development for U.S. leadership, I have to say. SHIFTER: I mean that—no, I don’t—I’m not talking about Noriega—. So if, you know, somebody who was against the peace agreement, you know, wants to win, that—they’re going to sort of make that the issue. I do see a silver lining here though, which is that in the Odebrecht case, the Brazilian prosecution has been really an important international player, and a player that has worked to cooperate with other Latin governments, and worked to, you know, teach, to counsel, to advise other prosecutors around the hemisphere. United States - United States - Secession and the politics of the Civil War, 1860â65: In the South, Lincolnâs election was taken as the signal for secession, and on December 20 South Carolina became the first state to withdraw from the Union. Nothing compared to Brazil, but you have had some corruption scandals that, you know, for Chilean standards have gotten folks pretty riled up. And we’re not very happy with what we see in either of them. And so it’s hard to build a consensus which underlies the OAS and really is the nature of the OAS to move forward on a lot of positions. But I would say, you know, throughout the hemisphere, there is a strong dedication to environmental issues. And I think, unfortunately for the Brazilians, they are having some difficulty getting heard, in part because of what’s going on at home. They have set out a scope of collaboration. It’s my hobbyhorse, so it’s the key issue—(laughter)—for I would say at least the next decade, as the region comes to terms. So there are many, many places in the region that are ground zero for feeling the effects of this. But we’ll come back to that question. TAYLOR: Because I was thinking about this this morning actually before coming here, and thinking—you know, there was a lot of talk about a turn to the left in the 2000s and then now a return to the right. I will wait. Vizcarraâs Ouster Puts Constitutional Reform on the Agenda in Peru, Chile Prepares to Write a New Constitutionâand a New Social Contract, Arce Looks to Heal Boliviaâs Divisions, but Moralesâ Shadow Looms Large, COVID-19 Is Making the Latest Migrant Exodus From Venezuela Even Worse. In the 2000s, under Lula especially, under the two terms of the Lula administration and continuing, to a certain extent, under Dilma, Brazil was the rising power. No, that means that they’re trying to find answers. In Brazil, if Temer goes tomorrow, Lula will be the president. A global pandemic. TAYLOR: If I may jump—well, you can jump in too, but—(laughs)—. So I think the corruption issue will unquestionably be there, but I’m just concerned, knowing Colombia and having listened to some of the speeches already of the precandidates, that the rhetoric may be pushed in a direction, unfortunately in my view, so that this peace issue once again—as it has been for the last how many years, the last decades—becomes the central issue. And it’s not just the Odebrecht case, because now we have this meat packing case, and there are many other cases that are likely to have international legs. ARNSON: There’s a Brazil piece in there and an Argentina piece. Now, the—now, the extreme case that Venezuela could do—I mean, the OAS could do is to invoke the Democratic Charter, which was approved on September 11th, 2001, in Lima, Peru. And it’s only two or—two people down the set of successions that you get to somebody who is not involved in a corruption—any kind of corruption scandal. Frida Ghitis on Why South America Has âTurned Against the Extremesâ, U.S. Trade Policy Shouldnât Pit Developing Countries Against Each Other, Japanâs Cable Deal With Chile Showcases Its Quiet Engagement in Latin America, How U.S. Adversaries Are Using Cryptocurrency to Evade Sanctions, Ahead of Elections, Venezuelaâs Divided Opposition Is at a Dead End, Vizcarraâs Ouster in Peru Shows How Difficult It Is to Root Out Corruption. Sure. We’ve seen it. And so I think the left in Brazil has been very deeply wounded by the past three years, certainly. Because I think anticorruption is becoming more and more an issue. You know, we’ve heard over and over again in certain countries the attitude “que se vayan todos,” that everybody should just, you know, leave or get out of here. And I think it’s important to remember that this is a—this is a corruption scandal that hasn’t only touched Brazil. In South America, we observe two main trends. It does show that, I ’ ll jump in too, we recall... 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