But if the quantity of money remains very deficient for a long time, the escape will be normally found in changing the monetary standard or the monetary system so as to raise the quantity of money, rather than in forcing down the wage-unit and thereby increasing the burden of debt. The classical postulates do not admit of the possibility of the third category, which I shall define below as ‘involuntary’ unemployment. Thus, whilst Ricardo expressly disclaimed any attempt to deal with the amount of the national dividend as a whole, Prof. Pigou, in a book which is specifically directed to the problem of the national dividend, maintains that the same theory holds when there is some involuntary unemployment as in the case of full employment. Prof. Pigou’s Theory of Unemployment is examined in more detail in the Appendix to Chapter 19 below. Keynes Comment (0) SYNOPSIS: Introduction In the spring of 2005 a panel of “conservative scholars and policy leaders” was asked to identify the most dangerous books of the 19th and 20th centuries. But this procedure must not be allowed to lead us into supposing that they are, strictly speaking, independent. If this is the case, such unemployment, though apparently involuntary, is not strictly so, and ought to be included under the above category of ‘voluntary’ unemployment due to the effects of collective bargaining, etc. 6. We must now define the third category of unemployment, namely ‘involuntary’ unemployment in the strict sense, the possibility of which the classical theory does not admit. These points, where a further increase in effective demand in terms of money is liable to cause a discontinuous rise in the wage-unit, might be deemed, from a certain point of view, to be positions of semi-inflation, having some analogy (though a very imperfect one) to the absolute inflation (cf. A. Schumpeter, History of Economic Analysis, New York, 1954, p. 623. JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES wurde am 5. Is it true that the above categories are comprehensive in view of the fact that the population generally is seldom doing as much work as it would like to do on the basis of the current wage? Up to this point the effect of monetary expansion is entirely a question of degree, and there is no previous point at which we can draw a definite line and declare that conditions of inflation have set in. If so, we shall have constant labour-costs (in terms of the wage-unit) when employment increases. It is a great fault of symbolic pseudo-mathematical methods of formalising a system of economic analysis, such as we shall set down in section vi of this chapter, that they expressly assume strict independence between the factors involved and lose all their cogency and authority if this hypothesis is disallowed; whereas, in ordinary discourse, where we are not blindly manipulating but know all the time what we are doing and what the words mean, we can keep “at the back of our heads” the necessary reserves and qualifications and the adjustments which we shall have to make later on, in a way in which we cannot keep complicated partial differentials “at the back” of several pages of algebra which assume that they all vanish. But it is a familiar economic axiom that a man purchases labour and commodities with that portion of his income which he saves just as much as he does with that he is said to spend. April 1946 in Tilton bei Firle, East Sussex) war ein britischer Ökonom, Politiker und Mathematiker. In the first instance, these conclusions may have been applied to the kind of economy in which we actually live by false analogy from some kind of non-exchange Robinson Crusoe economy, in which the income which individuals consume or retain as a result of their productive activity is, actually and exclusively, the output in specie of that activity. Das Buch ist, wie Keynes schreibt, das Ergebnis eines langen Kampfes, aus den alten Denkmustern auszubrechen. John Maynard Keynes Now e = 1, if ed = 1 and ew = 1; or if ed = 1, ew = 0 and ee.eo = 1; or if ed = 1 and eo = 0. Contemporary economists, who might hesitate to agree with Mill, do not hesitate to accept conclusions which require Mill’s doctrine as their premise. Or, again, the differences in the proportions, in which the remunerations of different factors change, may influence the relation between the quantity of money and the quantity of effective demand. The most important theoretical feature of this new paradigm was that it was supposedly bas… [2] If a tolerable level of employment requires a rate of interest much below the average rates which ruled in the nineteenth century, it is most doubtful whether it can be achieved merely by manipulating the quantity of money. They are fallaciously supposing that there is a nexus which unites decisions to abstain from present consumption with decisions to provide for future consumption; whereas the motives which determine the latter are not linked in any simple way with the motives which determine the former. The classical theorists resemble Euclidean geometers in a non-Euclidean world who, discovering that in experience straight lines apparently parallel often meet, rebuke the lines for not keeping straight as the only remedy for the unfortunate collisions which are occurring. Mr. J. To-day and presumably for the future the schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital is, for a variety of reasons, much lower than it was in the nineteenth century. Does it follow from this that the existing level of real wages accurately measures the marginal disutility of labour? Mit der »Allgemeinen Theorie der Beschäftigung, des Zinses und des Geldes« (The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, 1936) schrieb er ein grundlegendes Werk. For, admittedly, more labour would, as a rule, be forthcoming at the existing money-wage if it were demanded. In the case of a change peculiar to a particular industry one would expect the change in real wages to be in the same direction as the change in money-wages. The acuteness and the peculiarity of our contemporary problem arises, therefore, out of the possibility that the average rate of interest which will allow a reasonable average level of employment is one so unacceptable to wealth-owners that it cannot be readily established merely by manipulating the quantity of money. It is when we have made this transition that the peculiar properties of money as a link between the present and the future must enter into our calculations. the maximum quantity of employment which is compatible with a given real wage. Nevertheless it still underlies the whole classical theory, which would collapse without it. There is no reason to modify this conclusion when we pass to industry as a whole. To elucidate the ideas involved, let us simplify our assumptions still further, and assume (1) that all unemployed resources are homogeneous and interchangeable in their efficiency to produce what is wanted, and (2) that the factors of production entering into marginal cost are content with the same money-wage so long as there is a surplus of them unemployed. Cf. So long as we limit ourselves to the study of the individual industry or firm on the assumption that the aggregate quantity of employed resources is constant, and, provisionally, that the conditions of other industries or firms are unchanged, it is true that we are not concerned with the significant characteristics of money. There is no reason to modify this conclusion when we pass to industry as a whole. par., increase effective demand, and the increasing effective demand will reach one or more of the semi-critical points at which the wage-unit will tend to show a discontinuous rise, with a corresponding effect on prices. [Principles of Political Economy, Book III, Chap. We need to throw over the second postulate of the classical doctrine and to work out the behaviour of a system in which involuntary unemployment in the strict sense is possible. (taking equipment and technique as given) on the volume of employment. And the long-run stability or instability of prices will depend on the strength of the upward trend or the wage-unit (or, more precisely, of the cost-unit) compared with the rate of increase in the efficiency of the productive system. Manche seiner Kapitel sind schwierig und mühsam zu lesen. There will be a determinate amount of increase in the quantity of effective demand which, after taking everything into account, will correspond to, and be in equilibrium with, the increase in the quantity of money. If this is not true, then there is no longer any reason to expect a tendency towards equality between the real wage and the marginal disutility of labour. Next, we can deal with the case where income-velocity is not constant, by introducing yet a further elasticity, namely the elasticity, of effective demand in response to changes in the quantity of money. Thus the employment of an additional man will, if it occurs, necessarily involve a transfer of income from those previously in work to the entrepreneurs. But this analysis, though it is valuable in introducing order and method into our enquiry, presents a deceptive simplicity, if we forget that the three elements (a), (b) and (c) are themselves partly dependent on the complicating factors (2), (3), (4) and (5) which we have not yet considered. Thus a moderate change in effective demand, coming on a situation where there is widespread unemployment, may spend itself very little in raising prices and mainly in increasing employment; whilst a larger change, which, being unforeseen, causes some temporary “bottle-necks” to be reached, will spend itself in raising prices, as distinct from employment, to a greater extent at first than subsequently. Since this last expression gives us the proportionate change in prices in response to a change in the quantity of money, it can be regarded as a generalised statement of the Quantity Theory of Money. Criticizing the weak elements of the classical school (Smith, Ricardo, etc. This calls for two observations, the first of which relates to the actual attitude of workers towards real wages and money-wages respectively and is not theoretically fundamental, but the second of which is fundamental. That is to say, the real wage of an employed person is that which is just sufficient (in the estimation of the employed persons themselves) to induce the volume of labour actually employed to be forthcoming; subject to the qualification that the equality for each individual unit of labour may be disturbed by combination between employable units analogous to the imperfections of competition which qualify the first postulate. Hence the effect of changes in the quantity of money on the price-level can be considered as being compounded of the effect on the wage-unit and the effect on employment. It is true that it would not be easy to quote comparable passages from Marshall’s later work[10] or from Edgeworth or Professor Pigou. For it is far from being consistent with the general tenor of the classical theory, which has taught us to believe that prices are governed by marginal prime cost in terms of money and that money-wages largely govern marginal prime cost. Cf. Let us write MV = D where M is the quantity of money, V its income-velocity (this definition differing in the minor respects indicated above from the usual definition) and D the effective demand. A fall in real wages due to a rise in prices, with money-wages unaltered, does not, as a rule, cause the supply of available labour on offer at the current wage to fall below the amount actually employed prior to the rise of prices. Professor Pigou’s “Theory of Unemployment” PROFESSOR PIGOU in his Theory of Unemployment makes the volume of employment to depend on two fundamental factors, namely (1) the real rates of wages for which workpeople stipulate, and (2) the shape of the Real Demand Function for Labour. At different points in this chapter we have made the classical theory to depend in succession on the assumptions: (1) that the real wage is equal to the marginal disutility of the existing employment; (2) that there is no such thing as involuntary unemployment in the strict sense; (3) that supply creates its own demand in the sense that the aggregate demand price is equal to the aggregate supply price for all levels of output and employment. In emphasising our point of departure from the classical system, we must not overlook an important point of agreement. To sum up: there are two objections to the second postulate of the classical theory. Granted this, all the rest follows — the social advantages of private and national thrift, the traditional attitude towards the rate of interest, the classical theory of unemployment, the quantity theory of money, the unqualified advantages of laissez-faire in respect of foreign trade and much else which we shall have to question. 1. Juni 1883 in Cambridge geboren. On the other hand it would be impracticable to resist every reduction of real wages, due to a change in the purchasing-power of money which affects all workers alike; and in fact reductions of real wages arising in this way are not, as a rule, resisted unless they proceed to an extreme degree. I mean, not that the topic has been overlooked, but that the fundamental theory underlying it has been deemed so simple and obvious that it has received, at the most, a bare mention.[2]. An alternative definition, which amounts, however, to the same thing, will be given in the next chapter (p. 26 below). Sein Vater, JOHN NEVILLE KEYNES, schaffte über Stipendien den Sprung nach Cambridge. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. I think, on two fundamental postulates, though practically without discussion, namely: That is to say, the wage of an employed person is equal to the value which would be lost if employment were to be reduced by one unit (after deducting any other costs which this reduction of output would avoid); subject, however, to the qualification that the equality may be disturbed, in accordance with certain principles, if competition and markets are imperfect. Keynes war der Ansicht, die Leistungsfähigkeit des marktwirtschaftlichen Systems ließe sich nur dann erhalten, wenn der Staat die öffentlichen Ausgaben steigert. 353-55. Keynes was a British economist who died just after the last war. Clearly we do not mean by ‘involuntary’ unemployment the mere existence of an unexhausted capacity to work. This does not affect the substance of the argument, while it simplifies its exposition.”. Though the struggle over money-wages between individuals and groups is often believed to determine the general level of real wages, it is, in fact, concerned with a different object. Juni 1883 in Cambridge; 21. Therefore, after the Paris Commune, it was replaced by another with the so called mid-19thcentury idea of “marginal revolution”. If we allow ourselves the simplification of assuming that the rates of remuneration of the different factors of production which enter into marginal cost all change in the same proportion, i.e. To return to our immediate subject, the long-run relationship between the national income and the quantity of money will depend on liquidity-preferences. Sie erschien im Februar 1936 und gilt als sein wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Hauptwerk. With the aid of the notation introduced in Chapter 20 we can, if we wish, express the substance of the above in symbolic form. Could we suddenly double the productive powers of the country, we should double the supply of commodities in every market; but we should, by the same stroke, double the purchasing power. The following passage from Marshall’s Pure Theory of Domestic Values[9] illustrates the traditional approach: The whole of a man’s income is expended in the purchase of services and of commodities. But they do not readily lend themselves to theoretical generalisations. The cost-unit, or, subject to the above approximation, the wage-unit, can thus be regarded as the essential standard of value; and the price-level, given the state of technique and equipment, will depend partly on the cost-unit and partly on the scale of output, increasing, where output increases, more than in proportion to any increase in the cost-unit, in accordance with the principle of diminishing returns in the short period. But when we have thrown over the second postulate, a decline in employment, although necessarily associated with labour’s receiving a wage equal in value to a larger quantity of wage-goods, is not necessarily due to labour’s demanding a larger quantity of wage-goods; and a willingness on the part of labour to accept lower money-wages is not necessarily a remedy for unemployment. The Marshall of the Principles had become sufficiently doubtful to be very cautious and evasive. Danach gibt es also auch in marktwirtschaftlichen Wirtschaftsordnungen häufiger Arbeitslosigkeit, ohne dass die Marktkräfte allein einen Aufschwung bewirken können und z. Mdp/pdM = ep.ed where ep = 1 - ee.eo (1 - ew) ; where e without suffix ( = Mdp/pdM) stands for the apex of this pyramid and measures the response of money-prices to changes in the quantity of money. The general level of real wages depends on the other forces of the economic system. From the percentage gain, which the schedule of marginal efficiency of capital allows the borrower to expect to earn, there has to be deducted (1) the cost of bringing borrowers and lenders together, (2) income and surtaxes and (3) the allowance which the lender requires to cover his risk and uncertainty, before we arrive at the net yield available to tempt the wealth-owner to sacrifice his liquidity. Yet this strange supposition apparently underlies Professor Pigou’s Theory of Unemployment,[7] and it is what all members of the orthodox school are tacitly assuming. The central argument of The General Theory is that the level of employment is determined not by the price of labour, as in classical economics, but by the level of aggregate demand. Keynes’ emphasis on capitalism’s instability was lost among soothing assurances that growth was all but guaranteed, and that even aggressive countercyclical spending would only be needed in emergencies, like oxygen masks in airplanes. During the nineteenth century, the growth of population and of invention, the opening-up of new lands, the state of confidence and the frequency of war over the average of (say) each decade seem to have been sufficient, taken in conjunction with the propensity to consume, to establish a schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital which allowed a reasonably satisfactory average level of employment to be compatible with a rate of interest high enough to be psychologically acceptable to wealth-owners. Chapter 13. The general price-level depends partly on the rate of remuneration of the factors of production which enter into marginal cost and partly on the scale of output as a whole, i.e. In assuming that the wage bargain determines the real wage the classical school have slipt in an illicit assumption. Sie könnten die Produktion kurzfristig erhöhen. And obviously there is a variety of other special cases in which e = 1. Nor should we regard as ‘involuntary’ unemployment the withdrawal of their labour by a body of workers because they do not choose to work for less than a certain real reward. The classical theory of employment — supposedly simple and obvious — has been based. … The falling rate of interest will then, cet. Contemporary thought is still deeply steeped in the notion that if people do not spend their money in one way they will spend it in another. Moreover, if equipment is non-homogeneous and some part of it involves a greater prime cost per unit of output, we shall have increasing marginal prime costs over and above any increase due to increasing labour-costs. Die notwendigen Arbeitskräfte stünden zur Verfügung, da Unterbeschäftigung herrscht. This will be our contention. This condition is satisfied (see Chapter 20 §I above) if eo = 0 or if ew = 1. Dieser garantiert den Wohlstand einer Nation. The classical school have tacitly assumed that this would involve no significant change in their theory. Dabei war der Erfolg seines bahnbrechenden Werkes im Rückblick betrachtet um so erstaunlicher, als es auf einen in der Makroökonomik heute so verbreiteten formalen Apparat verzichtete und in weiten Teilen weniger klar u… But there is a more fundamental objection. The General Theory’s messy text was converted into a simple model that soon became a staple of introductory economics textbooks. The opposite tendencies will set in if the quantity of surplus money is an abnormally low proportion of the national income. This meant that the old theory was no longer useful for furthering bourgeois rule. 2. In a given state of organisation, equipment and technique, the real wage earned by a unit of labour has a unique (inverse) correlation with the volume of employment. (4) That the wage-unit may tend to rise before full employment has been reached, requires little comment or explanation. (3) Since resources are not interchangeable, some commodities will reach a condition of inelastic supply whilst there are still unemployed resources available for the production of other commodities. Thus increasing output will be associated with rising prices, apart from any change in the wage-unit. ; and that these rates of interest were modest enough to encourage a rate of investment consistent with an average of employment which was not intolerably low. This, to the best of my understanding, is the stance of Professor Pigou’s Theory of Unemployment — the only detailed account of the classical theory of employment which exists.[3]. This fits in, we shall find, with other characteristics of the classical theory, which is best regarded as a theory of distribution in conditions of full employment. But to suppose that this is invariably the case would be absurd. An eight-hour day does not constitute unemployment because it is not beyond human capacity to work ten hours. His major work, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, is an attempt to explain why such a sufficient fall of interest rates does not occur. This is a question for historical generalisation rather than for pure theory. — Consumption (C) is obviously much more a function of (in some sense) real income than of money-income. For when money is relatively abundant, the wage-unit rises; and when money is relatively scarce, some means is found to increase the effective quantity of money. [4] The classical school reconcile this phenomenon with their second postulate by arguing that, while the demand for labour at the existing money-wage may be satisfied before everyone willing to work at this wage is employed, this situation is due to an open or tacit agreement amongst workers not to work for less, and that if labour as a whole would agree to a reduction of money-wages more employment would be forthcoming. This is the nature of economic thinking. 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